Jonah Heim Home Run Prop: LV @ LAA June 28

Jonah Heim takes the field as the Las Vegas Athletics visit Angel Stadium for a night matchup on June 28, 2026. The catcher faces the Los Angeles Angels at +750 odds (implied probability 11.8%) to record at least one home run. Heim's recent night-game trends and extended head-to-head history against LAA provide the clearest angles for this prop.

Quick Stats

• Heim hit a home run in 3 of his last 10 night games (30% hit rate).
• Over 53 night games against LAA historically, Heim has homered in only 5 (9% hit rate).
• In 27 night games this season, Heim has 4 home runs (15% hit rate).
• Last season in 86 night games, Heim homered in 8 contests (9% hit rate).
• Heim is facing former teammate Kirby Yates, who overlapped with him on the Texas Rangers.

Recent Night-Game Momentum (Last 10 Games)

Heim's most recent stretch shows modest home run production in night games. Over his last 10 contests played at night (local start time after 6pm), he has homered in 3 games, yielding a 30% hit rate. This includes back-to-back home runs on June 9 and June 10 against Milwaukee, followed by a hit on June 20 against LAA itself. The last five night games show only 1 home run (20% rate), suggesting inconsistency even in the near term.

• 3 home runs in last 10 night games (30%)
• 1 home run in last 5 night games (20%)
• Recent home runs came vs. MIL (twice) and vs. LAA
• 3 consecutive scoreless night games precede this matchup (June 25, 6/27 @ LAA)

Career Night Game Record vs. Los Angeles Angels

Heim's extended head-to-head history against the Angels in night games reveals a low-frequency home run trend. Across 53 night games against LAA (spanning 2021, 2026), Heim has hit a home run in only 5 contests, a 9% hit rate. This includes games both at Angel Stadium and in Oakland/Las Vegas. The May 18, 2024 encounter marked a rare pair of homers in the same day (both listed on the same date). The most recent home run versus LAA in a night game occurred on June 20, 2026, just one week prior to this matchup.

• 5 home runs in 53 night games vs. LAA (9%)
• Last home run vs. LAA at night: June 20, 2026
• Only 2 instances of home run production in past 10 night games vs. LAA (2024, 2026)
• Matchup spans both home and away games at Angel Stadium

2026 Season Night-Game Trends

This season, Heim's night-game home run rate stands at 15%, with 4 home runs in 27 games played after 6pm local start time. The clustering of three home runs in early June (June 4, 10) against Milwaukee and Chicago, then a late entry on June 24, illustrates episodic rather than sustained power. With the season now at the 81-game mark for the Athletics (39, 42 record), Heim remains below his historical night-game average for home run frequency.

• 4 home runs in 27 night games this season (15%)
• Three consecutive night games with home runs: June 4, 5, 9, 10
• One home run in last 8 night games (June 25 onward)
• Home runs spread across opponents: MIL, COL, SF, LAA

Context: Former Teammate Kirby Yates

Heim faces Los Angeles Angels right-hander Kirby Yates, with whom he overlapped on the 2022, 2023 Texas Rangers roster. While shared team history can occasionally influence matchup dynamics, Heim's long-term numbers against the Angels as an organization (9% in night games) provide the more reliable predictive framework than the presence of a former teammate.

• Heim and Yates both played for Texas Rangers
• No exceptional performance split against LAA pitching identified
• Career night-game prop still frames the strongest angle

Team Betting Trends

The strongest Las Vegas Athletics team-level angles, with the numbers:

• Las Vegas Over 2.5 - First 5 Innings Team Runs Scored (47% in the last 34 night away games against LAA) at +145
• Las Vegas -0.5 - First 5 Innings Run Line (46% in 54 night games this season) at +124
• Las Vegas -1.5 - Run Line (45% in the last 60 night games against LAA) at +151
• Las Vegas Over 0.5 - 1st Inning Team Runs Scored (43% in the last 23 clear away games against LAA) at +240
• Las Vegas - 8th Inning Moneyline at -110

Situational Angles & Storylines

What our projection data flags for this team right now:

• Las Vegas Athletics get a softer spot against a sub.500 opponent.

Best Team Picks

Top Las Vegas Athletics team bets with the data behind each:

• Las Vegas Over 2.5 - First 5 Innings Team Runs Scored (47% in the last 34 night away games against LAA, +145)
• Las Vegas -0.5 - First 5 Innings Run Line (46% in 54 night games this season, +124)
• Las Vegas -1.5 - Run Line (45% in the last 60 night games against LAA, +151)
• Las Vegas Over 0.5 - 1st Inning Team Runs Scored (43% in the last 23 clear away games against LAA, +240)

Players to Watch on Las Vegas Athletics

Player props from this roster, each tied to the player (not the team):

• J. Perkins Under 5.5 - Strikeouts Recorded (81% in 21 games this season, +115)
• A. Williams Over 1.5 - Total Bases (70% in the last 10 games, +199)
• H. Bolte Over 0.5 - Singles (64% in 28 night games this season, -101)
• T. Soderstrom Over 1.5 - Total Bases (60% in the last 20 games vs teams who passed on drafting Soderstrom, +138)
• S. Langeliers Over 0.5 - Runs Scored (59% in the last 34 night games against LAA, +104)
• T. Soderstrom Over 0.5 - Singles (59% in the last 32 games against LAA, who are also from California, -104)

Things to Watch Out For

Risk flags before backing this team:

• Las Vegas Over 2.5 - First 5 Innings Team Runs Scored has hit just 47% recently, closer to a coin flip than an edge.
• Las Vegas -0.5 - First 5 Innings Run Line sits at 46% lately, too thin to back with confidence.
• Las Vegas -1.5 - Run Line has cashed only 45% of late, below the bar for a real edge.
• Las Vegas Over 0.5 - 1st Inning Team Runs Scored is barely a coin flip at 43%, so tread carefully.

Upcoming Schedule

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is Jonah Heim's home run hit rate in his last 10 night games?

Heim has hit at least 1 home run in 3 of his last 10 night games, a 30% hit rate. However, in the last 5 night games specifically, he has 1 home run (20%).

How often has Heim homered in night games against the Los Angeles Angels historically?

Over 53 night games against LAA in his career, Heim has homered in 5 games, a 9% hit rate. This span includes contests from 2021 through the current date.

What is Heim's season-long night-game home run rate in 2026?

In 27 night games this season (local start time after 6pm), Heim has 4 home runs, yielding a 15% hit rate. Most of these came in early June; he has 1 home run in his last 8 night games.

Does Heim have any prior connection to Kirby Yates or the Angels organization?

Yes, Heim and Angels pitcher Kirby Yates overlapped on the Texas Rangers roster. However, this shared history does not create a measurable statistical advantage or disadvantage in the home run prop context.

What were Heim's home run trends in night games last season?

Last season (2025), Heim played 86 night games and hit 8 home runs, a 9% hit rate, consistent with his career night-game average against the Angels.