Jared Triolo Over 0.5 SB | Pirates vs Reds

Jared Triolo faces Cincinnati in the Pirates' afternoon contest at PNC Park on June 27, 2026. The Over 0.5 stolen bases prop carries +340 odds. Triolo's theft rate has been modest overall this season, but recent form shows meaningful variance worth monitoring ahead of this divisional matchup.

Quick Stats

• Triolo has hit the Over 0.5 SB in 3 of 10 games (30% hit rate) over his last 10 contests
• In 25 career games vs Cincinnati, Triolo has never stolen more than 0.5 bases (0% against Reds)
• Season-long rate stands at 5 steals in 46 games (11% hit rate)
• Pittsburgh enters at 41-41, Cincinnati at 38-42; Pirates favored in divisional play

Recent Form vs Long-Term Baseline

Over the last 10 games, Triolo has recorded at least 1 stolen base in 3 contests, translating to a 30% Over hit rate on the 0.5 line. That represents a notable uptick from his season trajectory: across 46 games to date, the Over has cashed just 5 times (11% rate). The 19-point gap between his L10 and season rates suggests recent stealing activity, though the sample remains small.

• L10 Over hit rate: 30% (3 of 10 games)
• Season Over hit rate: 11% (5 of 46 games)
• L5 Over hit rate: 0% (0 of 5 games) - recent decline
• Last season (2025): 12% hit rate across 100 games

Cincinnati Matchup History

Triolo's head-to-head record against the Reds is stark: across 25 games, he has not stolen more than 0.5 bases in any appearance. This 0% H2H Over hit rate spans multiple seasons (dating to 2023) and offers the starkest contextual caution for the Over play in this particular divisional contest.

• H2H games vs Cincinnati: 25
• H2H Over 0.5 SB hits: 0
• H2H hit rate: 0%
• H2H date range: August 13, 2023 - June 26, 2026

Context and Venue

The Pirates (41-41, 50% win percentage) are at home facing the Reds (38-42, 47.5% win percentage) in an afternoon game at PNC Park (capacity 38,747). Projected weather includes rain with visibility at 21,050 meters; wind is light from the south. Pittsburgh enters with a one-game losing streak but showed a 3-2 record over its last 5 contests. Cincinnati has won 1 straight after a 2-3 L5.

• Home team (Pirates): 41-41, L1, L5: 3-2
• Away team (Reds): 38-42, W1, L5: 2-3
• Game time: Saturday, 4:05 PM ET (afternoon)
• Weather: Rainy, 75-82% humidity, 8.6 kmh max wind
• Days of rest: Both teams 0 days since last game

Odds and Market Setup

The Over 0.5 SB carries American odds of +340 (decimal 4.4, fractional 340/100), implying a 22.73% break-even probability. The prop is offered across major operators and is eligible for in-game wagering. Triolo's baseline theft rate and 0% historical mark against this opponent create a low-probability overlay at these odds.

• American odds: +340
• Decimal odds: 4.4
• Implied probability: 22.73%
• Eligible operators: Multiple (5 confirmed)
• In-game eligible: No

Team Betting Trends

The strongest Pittsburgh Pirates team-level angles, with the numbers:

• Pittsburgh Over 3.5 - Team Runs Scored (63% in 43 home games this season) at -122
• Pittsburgh Over 3.5 - First 7 Innings Team Runs Scored (55% in the last 20 afternoon home games) at +150
• Pittsburgh Over 0.5 - 1st Inning Team Runs Scored (40% in 43 home games this season) at +260
• Pittsburgh - 7th Inning Moneyline at -115
• Pittsburgh - 2nd Inning Moneyline at +100

Situational Angles & Storylines

What our projection data flags for this team right now:

• Pittsburgh Pirates get a softer spot against a sub.500 opponent.

Best Team Picks

Top Pittsburgh Pirates team bets with the data behind each:

• Pittsburgh Over 3.5 - Team Runs Scored (63% in 43 home games this season, -122)
• Pittsburgh Over 3.5 - First 7 Innings Team Runs Scored (55% in the last 20 afternoon home games, +150)
• Pittsburgh Over 0.5 - 1st Inning Team Runs Scored (40% in 43 home games this season, +260)
• Pittsburgh - 7th Inning Moneyline (-115, 54% implied)

Players to Watch on Pittsburgh Pirates

Player props from this roster, each tied to the player (not the team):

• B. Lowe Over 0.5 - Walks (78% in the last 9 rainy home games, +175)
• B. Reynolds Over 0.5 - Walks (65% in the last 20 afternoon home games, +120)
• M. Ozuna Over 0.5 - RBIs (62% in the last 13 afternoon games against CIN, +240)
• B. Lowe Over 1.5 - Hits + Runs + RBIs (60% in the last 20 home games, +100)
• N. Gonzales Over 1.5 - Hits + Runs + RBIs (56% in 75 games this season, -108)
• B. Reynolds Over 0.5 - Runs Scored (55% in 33 games this season vs a former teammate, +139)

Things to Watch Out For

Risk flags before backing this team:

• The forecast above could suppress scoring, passing volume, and overs.
• Pittsburgh Over 0.5 - 1st Inning Team Runs Scored has hit just 40% recently, closer to a coin flip than an edge.

Upcoming Schedule

Live odds for the next game appear in the widget on this page.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is Jared Triolo's stolen base rate this season?

Triolo has stolen more than 0.5 bases in 5 of 46 games (11% hit rate) this season. Over the last 10 games, the rate improves to 3 of 10 (30%), but over the last 5 games it drops to 0 of 5.

How has Triolo performed against Cincinnati historically?

In 25 career games against the Reds dating back to August 2023, Triolo has never stolen more than 0.5 bases. The Over has cashed 0 times in that span (0% hit rate).

What are the matchup odds and implied probability?

The Over 0.5 Stolen Bases is listed at +340 American odds (4.4 decimal), which implies a 22.73% break-even probability. A $100 bet would return $340 in profit if it cashes.

What is the game context for Pirates vs Reds on June 27?

Pittsburgh (41-41) hosts Cincinnati (38-42) on Saturday, June 27 at 4:05 PM ET at PNC Park. Rainy conditions are projected with 75-82% humidity. Both teams have 0 days of rest since their last game; the Pirates are 3-2 in their last 5, the Reds are 2-3.