The Nelson Giants head to Wellington to face the Saints on June 26. Nelson's first-half spread has cashed at 65% in their last 20 away games, offering value at +6.5. Wellington's total of 182.5 points has hit 77% over 13 games this season, a strong marker for an over play despite the Saints favored by 11.5 points.
Quick Stats
- 8 games on the slate
- 24 qualifying trends tracked
- Nelson +12.5 - Point Spread (80% in the last 20 games, -125) - NEL @ WEL
- Over 182.5 - Total Points (77% in 13 games this season, -105) - WEL vs. NEL
- Nelson +6.5 - 1st Half Point Spread (65% in the last 20 away games, -110) - NEL @ WEL
Today's Slate
8 NBL games with odds and previews:
- Nelson Giants at Wellington Saints
- Otago Nuggets at Taranaki Airs
- Whai at Franklin Bulls
- Bay Hawks at Canterbury Rams
- Auckland Tuatara at Nelson Giants
- Canterbury Rams at Southland Sharks
- Taranaki Airs at Bay Hawks
- Manawatu Jets at Canterbury Rams
Best Picks Across the Slate
Our highest-confidence plays today, with the data behind each:
- Nelson +12.5 - Point Spread (80% in the last 20 games, -125) - NEL @ WEL
- Over 182.5 - Total Points (77% in 13 games this season, -105) - WEL vs. NEL
- Nelson +6.5 - 1st Half Point Spread (65% in the last 20 away games, -110) - NEL @ WEL
- Wellington -6.5 - 1st Half Point Spread (60% in the last 20 home games, -120) - WEL vs. NEL
- Wellington -19.5 - Point Spread (60% in the last 10 home games, +230) - WEL vs. NEL
Things to Watch Out For
Slate-wide risk flags:
- Wellington -11.5 - Point Spread has hit just 50% recently, closer to a coin flip than an edge.
- Nelson -4.5 - Point Spread sits at 40% lately, too thin to back with confidence.
- Under 165.5 - Total Points has cashed only 30% of late, below the bar for a real edge.
- Over 189.5 - Total Points is barely a coin flip at 50%, so tread carefully.
How We Read the Slate
Across 8 games we surface 24 qualifying trends, but volume alone is not edge, so we weight recent hit rate and matchup context before recommending a side.
First Half Splits: Nelson Finds Value on the Road
Nelson's away-game performance in first-half spreads stands out. The Giants have covered +6.5 in 65% of their last 20 away games, suggesting the opening half offers value against Wellington's -6.5 first-half line. Wellington, conversely, has covered -6.5 at home in 60% of their last 20 games, making both angles competitive but Nelson's 65% road trend the sharper number.
- Nelson +6.5 first half: 65% hit rate in last 20 away games (NEL @ WEL)
- Wellington -6.5 first half: 60% hit rate in last 20 home games (WEL vs. NEL)
Second-Half Divergence: Full-Spread Inconsistency at Wellington
Wellington's full-game -11.5 spread shows a 50% hit rate in the last 20 home games, a far cry from the first-half edge. This 11.5-point favorite line has cashed exactly half the time at home, suggesting the second half erodes the Saints' dominance or the market has properly priced Wellington's home advantage.
- Wellington -11.5 full spread: 50% hit rate in last 20 home games (WEL vs. NEL)
Over 182.5 Carries Strong Season Trend
The combined over of 182.5 points has cashed in 77% of 13 games this season, the most reliable number on the card. This total has held across a deep sample and suggests scoring remains elevated in Wellington matches regardless of opponent.
- Over 182.5 total points: 77% hit rate across 13 games this season (WEL vs. NEL)
Wellington's First Quarter Scoring Ceiling
Wellington is listed at over 24.5 points in the first quarter. No historical hit rate is provided for this prop, so it functions as a monitoring line for quarter-by-quarter pacing rather than a backed trend.
- Wellington over 24.5 first quarter points: Available for tracking (WEL vs. NEL)
Frequently Asked Questions
How many NBL games are on today?
8 games are on the current NBL slate.
What is the best NBL pick today?
Our top play: Nelson +12.5 - Point Spread (80% in the last 20 games, -125) - NEL @ WEL.
Where can I see NBL odds?
Live odds and trends for every game appear in the widget feed on this page.