SK Super Nova welcomes FS Jelgava to Olaines Pilsetas Stadions on June 25 in a Latvia Virsliga regular-season clash. The headline story: SK have won or drawn during regulation in all 5 of their last 5 home games against Jelgava, dating back to May 2023. That 100% H2H win-or-draw rate at home stands in sharp contrast to SK's broader home struggles this season, they've managed a win or draw in just 3 of their 8 home games overall (38%). Despite sitting 6-10-3 on the year with a 0-4-1 skid in their last 5, SK's historical dominance in this specific fixture offers a tangible edge.
Quick Stats
- SK Super Nova's Double Chance (win or draw) vs Jelgava carries -225 American odds (1.44 decimal, 69.2% implied probability) off a perfect 5-of-5 home H2H record against this opponent.
- SK have won or drawn in only 40% of their last 10 home games and 38% of their 8 home games this season, showing vulnerability on home soil overall.
- FS Jelgava arrive 4-8-7 on the season (21% win rate) and 1-1-3 in their last 5, while their former coach Ervīns Pērkons now manages Super Nova, eliminating a potential reverse-fixture storyline for the visitors.
SK Super Nova's Home H2H Advantage vs Jelgava
SK Super Nova's record at home against FS Jelgava is unblemished in regulation. Over their last 5 meetings at Olaines Pilsetas Stadions (May 2023 through March 2026), Super Nova has won or drawn every single game, with results of 2-2, 1-1, 0-0, 1-1, and 1-1. This 100% win-or-draw rate is the strongest edge in the data across all home matchups for SK this season.
- SK have won or drawn in all 5 of their last 5 home games vs Jelgava (100% H2H)
- SK's record in the last 20 home games overall: 11 wins-or-draws in 20 (55%)
- SK's record in the last 10 home games overall: 4 wins-or-draws in 10 (40%)
- SK's 2026 home record: 3 wins-or-draws in 8 home games (38%)
SK Super Nova's Season Form and Recent Struggles
While SK's H2H record shines, their broader home form has softened considerably. This season, they are 6-10-3 overall with a.316 win percentage, and at home specifically, they've drawn only 3 regulation wins or draws across 8 games (38%). More concerning, SK are on a 0-4-1 stretch in their last 5 matches and carry a 1-game losing streak into this matchup. Both teams have had 3 days of rest since their last games, so fatigue is not a differentiator.
- SK Super Nova season record: 6-10-3 (.316 win percentage)
- SK home win-or-draw rate this season: 3 of 8 games (38%)
- SK last-5 record: 0-4-1 (no wins in the past five)
- SK current losing streak: 1 game
- Both teams rested 3 days since last game
FS Jelgava's Weak Away Form and Season Trajectory
FS Jelgava arrive in poor shape. They sit 4-8-7 for the season with a.210 win percentage and are 1-1-3 in their last 5 games. Playing on the road against a team that has never failed to at least draw at home in their last 5 head-to-heads, Jelgava have limited room for error. Notably, Jelgava's former coach Ervīns Pērkons now manages SK Super Nova, but the visitor's record this season suggests they lack the cohesion to capitalize on any tactical familiarity.
- FS Jelgava season record: 4-8-7 (.210 win percentage)
- FS Jelgava last-5 record: 1-1-3 (one win in past five)
- FS Jelgava away form: weak enough to face a 100% H2H SK home draw-or-win record
- Jelgava's former coach Ervīns Pērkons now manages SK Super Nova
Team Betting Trends
The strongest SK Super Nova team-level angles, with the numbers:
- SK - 1X2 (FT) at +155
- Under 2.5 - Asian Total Goals (70% in the last 10 games against JEL) at -140
- SK - 1X2 (FT) (35% in the last 20 games) at +155
- No - Both Teams to Score (45% in the last 20 games) at -115
- Over 2.5 - Asian Total Goals at -105
Situational Angles & Storylines
What our projection data flags for this team right now:
- SK Super Nova get a softer spot against a sub.500 opponent.
Best Team Picks
Top SK Super Nova team bets with the data behind each:
- Even - Odd or Even (100% in the last 5 home games against JEL, -125)
- SK +0.5 - Asian Handicap (100% in the last 5 home games against JEL, -230)
- SK/Jelgava - Double Chance (FT) (85% in the last 20 games, -450)
- Under 2.5 - Asian Total Goals (70% in the last 10 games against JEL, -140)
Things to Watch Out For
Risk flags before backing this team:
- SK - 1X2 (FT) has hit just 35% recently, closer to a coin flip than an edge.
- No - Both Teams to Score sits at 45% lately, too thin to back with confidence.
- Odd - Odd or Even has cashed only 50% of late, below the bar for a real edge.
Upcoming Schedule
Live odds for the next game appear in the widget on this page.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does SK Super Nova's Double Chance win-or-draw bet mean?
Double Chance (SK/Draw) means your bet wins if SK Super Nova wins OR if the match ends in a tie during full-time play. You lose only if Jelgava wins. At -225 American odds (1.44 decimal), the implied probability is 69.2%.
How reliable is SK's 100% home H2H record vs Jelgava?
SK have won or drawn in all 5 of their last 5 home games against Jelgava dating back to May 2023, with scores of 2-2, 1-1, 0-0, 1-1, and 1-1. However, this must be weighed against SK's softer overall home form: they've managed only a 38% win-or-draw rate in their 8 home games this season and are currently on a 0-4-1 skid.
Does SK's recent losing streak hurt their Double Chance odds?
SK are on a 0-4-1 stretch in their last 5 matches with a 1-game losing streak entering this fixture. Despite this downturn, the -225 odds still reflect their perfect H2H home record against Jelgava. The odds imply a 69.2% probability that SK will either win or draw, substantially higher than their 38% home win-or-draw rate this season overall.
Is Jelgava's former coach connection a factor?
FS Jelgava's former coach Ervīns Pērkons now manages SK Super Nova, eliminating the typical 'revenge' or 'knows the team' edge for the away side. Additionally, Jelgava's weak season record (4-8-7,.210 win percentage) and 1-1-3 last-5 form suggest they lack the strength to overcome SK's home advantage regardless of coaching familiarity.