Chelsea Gray takes on the Indiana Fever on July 5 at the T-Mobile Arena (capacity 20,000) in a regular-season matchup. The over 12.5 points prop has cashed in 60% of Gray's last 5 games played in large stadiums, and she enters Sunday with one day of rest following a win. Gray scored 18 points in her most recent outing vs. Chicago on July 4.

Quick Stats

• Gray's over 12.5 points has hit 60% in her last 5 games in large stadiums (3 of 5)
• Over the last 10 large-stadium games, the over has connected 60% of the time (6 of 10)
• Gray scored 18 points in her last game on July 4 vs. Chicago
• The Aces are 15-6 on the season with a 71.43% win percentage; Las Vegas is on a 1-game winning streak
• Against Indiana specifically in large stadiums, Gray's over has cashed 38% of the time (3 of 8 games)

Recent Performance in Large Stadiums

Chelsea Gray's scoring output in large-capacity venues has been consistent in 2026. Over her last 5 games in stadiums with capacity at or above 20,000, Gray has exceeded 12.5 points in 3 contests, producing a 60% hit rate. Her recent string includes 18 points on July 4 vs. Chicago and 18 points on June 28 at Chicago, bookending a stretch that demonstrates reliable production in bigger arenas.

• Last 5 games in large stadiums: 60% over hit rate (3 of 5)
• Last 10 games in large stadiums: 60% over hit rate (6 of 10)
• Last 20 games in large stadiums: 50% over hit rate (10 of 20)
• 2026 season in large stadiums: 60% over hit rate (3 of 5 games)

Matchup-Specific Trends vs. Indiana

When examining Gray's scoring history specifically against Indiana in large-stadium settings, the over has cashed at a lower clip. Across 8 prior games vs. the Fever in large-capacity venues, Gray has topped 12.5 points 3 times, yielding a 38% success rate. Her scoring in those matchups has ranged from 2 points (July 3, 2025) to 21 points (Sept. 13, 2024), showing volatility in this particular pairing.

• vs. Indiana in large stadiums: 38% over hit rate (3 of 8 games)
• Range of performances: 2 to 21 points
• Most recent IND matchup (July 3, 2025): 2 points
• Highest scoring IND game (Sept. 13, 2024): 21 points

Team Context and Rest Advantage

The Las Vegas Aces enter as the home favorite with a 15-6 season record and a 71.43% win percentage. Las Vegas sits on a 1-game winning streak and has had 1 day of rest since its last game. Indiana arrives at 11-8 on the season (57.89% win percentage) with 7 days of rest since its last contest. The Aces' minimal rest combined with home-arena familiarity and the T-Mobile Arena's large capacity (20,000) align with Gray's stronger recent trends in these settings.

• LVA season record: 15-6 (71.43% win percentage)
• LVA last 5: 3-2 with 1-game winning streak
• LVA days of rest: 1
• IND season record: 11-8 (57.89% win percentage)
• IND last 5: 2-3
• IND days of rest: 7

Event Details

This contest is a regular-season matchup scheduled for July 5, 2026, at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas on a Sunday afternoon. The event is nationally televised and is part of Week 28 of the WNBA calendar. Game time is 4:00 p.m. local (Las Vegas) / 11:00 p.m. UTC.

• Venue: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas (capacity 20,000)
• Date/Time: July 5, 2026, 4:00 p.m. PT
• Nationally televised
• Day of week: Sunday (afternoon game)
• Tournament type: Regular season

Top Team & Game Trends

The strongest team and game angles for this matchup:

• Under 181.5 - Total Points (87% in the last 23 games against IND) at -105
• Indiana W - Moneyline (75% in the last 20 games played in large stadiums) at +145
• Las Vegas W - Moneyline (83% in the last 23 games against IND) at -175
• Under 170.5 - Total Points (88% in the last 8 games against IND played in large stadiums) at +240
• Under 168.5 - Total Points (88% in the last 8 games against IND played in large stadiums) at +290

Best Game Picks

Our top data-backed game/team recommendations, with the numbers:

• Indiana W -5.5 - Point Spread (100% in 1 away games this season played in large stadiums, +235)
• Under 173.5 - Total Points (100% in the last 8 games against IND played in large stadiums, +186)
• Under 181.5 - Total Points (87% in the last 23 games against IND, -105)
• Las Vegas W - Moneyline (83% in the last 23 games against IND, -175)

Player Props to Watch

Player props for this game, each tied to the player:

• T. Harris Under 3.5 - Assists (95% in the last 20 games, +101)
• N. Smith Under 20.5 - Points + Rebounds (95% in the last 20 games played in large stadiums, -109)
• A. Boston Under 0.5 - 3 Pointers Made (93% in the last 15 games against LVA, +160)
• N. Smith Under 13.5 - Points Scored (90% in the last 20 games played in large stadiums, -124)
• A. Boston Under 17.5 - Points Scored (90% in the last 20 away games, -118)
• C. Gray Under 21.5 - Points + Assists (90% in the last 20 games vs teams who passed on drafting Gray, -114)

Parlays for This Game

Correlated multi-leg parlays from this matchup, with the combined price and every leg:

• 2-leg parlay at +140 (42% implied): C. Parker-Tyus Over 3.5 - Rebounds + K. Mitchell Over 26.5 - Points + Assists
• 4-leg parlay at +443 (18% implied): N. Smith Under 13.5 - Points Scored + N. Smith Under 20.5 - Points + Rebounds + R. Johnson Under 6.5 - Rebounds + Assists + R. Johnson Under 11.5 - Points + Assists
• 2-leg parlay at +392 (20% implied): A. Boston Over 9.5 - Rebounds + J. Loyd Over 2.5 - 3 Pointers Made

How to Bet This Market

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is Chelsea Gray's over 12.5 points hit rate in large stadiums?

In her last 5 games played in large stadiums (capacity 20,000 or above), Chelsea Gray's over 12.5 points has cashed 60% of the time (3 of 5). Over her last 10 games in large-capacity venues, the over has hit 60% of the time as well (6 of 10 games).

How does Gray perform specifically against Indiana in large stadiums?

Across 8 prior games vs. Indiana in large-stadium settings, Chelsea Gray has scored more than 12.5 points in 3 contests, yielding a 38% hit rate. Her scoring in those matchups has ranged from 2 points to 21 points, showing volatility in this particular pairing.

What was Gray's most recent scoring performance?

Chelsea Gray scored 18 points on July 4, 2026, vs. Chicago, which exceeded the 12.5-point threshold and cashed the over.

How much rest do each team have heading into July 5?

Las Vegas has 1 day of rest since its last game, while Indiana has 7 days of rest since its last contest.

What are the Aces' season record and recent form?

Las Vegas is 15-6 on the season with a 71.43% win percentage. In their last 5 games, they are 3-2 with a 1-game winning streak.

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