Colt Keith faces Houston in a sunny home game at Comerica Park on June 25. The over on Keith's strikeouts carries a 50% hit rate across his 14 sunny home games this season. In his last 10 sunny home contests, the over has connected in exactly half. Keith struck out more than 0.5 times in 5 of those 10 matchups.

Quick Stats

• Keith's over 0.5 strikeouts has hit 50% in 14 sunny home games this season
• Over the last 10 sunny home games, the over has cashed in 5 contests (50%)
• Against Houston specifically in a sunny home game last season, the over went 0-for-1
• Sunny weather forecast for June 25 at Comerica Park matches Keith's tracked conditions

2026 Season Performance in Sunny Home Games

Through 14 sunny home games this season, Colt Keith's over 0.5 strikeouts has hit in 7 contests. That 50% clip represents the baseline for this prop. The Tigers third baseman has recorded multiple strikeouts (displayed as 2 in the data) in two of those games and exactly one in five others, with six games featuring zero strikeouts.

• 7 of 14 sunny home games this season: over cashed
• 50% hit rate across the season sample in matching weather

Last 10 and Last 5 Sunny Home Game Splits

Keith's most recent 10 sunny home games show an even 5-5 split, with the over connecting in contests against Boston, Toronto (twice), Cleveland, and Los Angeles. The last 5 sunny home games narrowed that to 1 hit in 5 tries (20%), with the only over landing on June 6 against Seattle. All other recent games (vs. Seattle again, Minnesota, and Yankees) saw the under cash.

• Last 10 sunny home games: 50% (5 hits)
• Last 5 sunny home games: 20% (1 hit)
• Most recent game vs. Houston in sunny conditions (last season): 0%

Houston Matchup History

Keith faced the Astros once at home in sunny conditions on August 18, 2025. That game did not produce a strikeout for the over to cash. With Houston entering the June 25 contest on a 2-game winning streak and Detroit on a 2-game losing streak, the Astros carry a 39-43 season record to Comerica Park.

• H2H record in sunny home games vs. Houston: 0 of 1
• Houston's 2-game winning streak vs. Detroit's 2-game losing streak

Long-Term Trend Analysis

Over a 20-game sample of sunny home contests, Keith's strikeout over has hit in 9 games (45%). Last season in sunny home games, the over cashed in 11 of 18 games (61%), suggesting slightly elevated strikeout rates in those conditions historically. The contrast between last season's 61% and this season's 50% indicates a modest downtick in strikeout frequency year-over-year.

• Last 20 sunny home games: 45% (9 hits)
• Last season (18 games): 61% (11 hits)
• This season (14 games): 50% (7 hits)

Top Team & Game Trends

The strongest team and game angles for this matchup:

• Under 0.5 - 1st Inning Total Runs Scored (68% in the last 37 games against DET) at -110
• Under 5.5 - Total Runs Scored (60% in the last 10 sunny away games) at +334
• Under 6 - Total Runs Scored (60% in the last 10 sunny away games) at +308
• Under 6.5 - Total Runs Scored (70% in the last 10 sunny away games) at +240
• Under 7 - Total Runs Scored (70% in the last 10 sunny away games) at +200

Matchup Angles & Storylines

Situational storylines our data flags for this game:

• Detroit Tigers get a softer spot against a sub.500 opponent.
• Houston Astros get a softer spot against a sub.500 opponent.

Best Game Picks

Our top data-backed game/team recommendations, with the numbers:

• Yes - No Runs First Inning (80% in the last 10 sunny home games, +105)
• Under 6.5 - Total Runs Scored (70% in the last 10 sunny away games, +240)
• Under 0.5 - 1st Inning Total Runs Scored (68% in the last 37 games against DET, -110)
• Over 11.5 - Total Runs Scored (36% in 50 night games this season, +240)

Player Props to Watch

Player props for this game, each tied to the player:

• T. Melton Under 3.5 - Hits Allowed (100% in the last 5 sunny home games, +343)
• T. Melton Under 1.5 - Earned Runs Allowed (92% in the last 12 night games, +204)
• J. Meyers Under 0.5 - Hits (80% in the last 10 away games, +140)
• Y. Alvarez Over 1.5 - Walks (80% in the last 5 games, +544)
• Y. Alvarez Under 0.5 - Runs Scored (75% in the last 20 away games vs a former teammate, +100)
• C. Keith Under 0.5 - Hits (70% in the last 20 games, +130)

Parlays for This Game

Correlated multi-leg parlays from this matchup, with the combined price and every leg:

• 2-leg parlay at +204 (33% implied): Z. McKinstry Over 0.5 - Hits + Z. McKinstry Over 0.5 - Runs Scored
• 2-leg parlay at +371 (21% implied): R. Greene Over 1.5 - Total Bases + C. Smith Over 1.5 - Hits + Runs + RBIs
• 3-leg parlay at +250 (29% implied): D. Dingler Over 0.5 - RBIs + D. Dingler Over 1.5 - Total Bases + D. Dingler Over 0.5 - Runs Scored

Things to Watch Out For

Risk flags before you bet this game:

• Y. Alvarez Over 1.5 - Hits has hit just 39% recently, closer to a coin flip than an edge.
• S. Torkelson Yes - To Hit a Home Run sits at 35% lately, too thin to back with confidence.
• D. Dingler Over 0.5 - RBIs has cashed only 50% of late, below the bar for a real edge.
• Over 11.5 - Total Runs Scored is barely a coin flip at 36%, so tread carefully.

How to Bet This Market

Compare prices across books, confirm the line hasn't moved, and place the bet via the widget.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the hit rate for Colt Keith's over 0.5 strikeouts in sunny home games this season?

The over has cashed in 7 of 14 sunny home games (50%) during the 2026 season at Comerica Park.

How has the prop performed in Keith's last 10 sunny home games?

The over has hit in 5 of the last 10 sunny home games, also a 50% clip. Across the preceding 10 games in that window, Keith struck out more than 0.5 times against Boston, Toronto (twice), Cleveland, and Los Angeles, but failed to reach that threshold against Seattle (twice), Minnesota, and the Yankees.

Does Keith have prior data against Houston in sunny home games?

Yes, Keith faced Houston in a sunny home game on August 18, 2025, and the over did not cash in that matchup (0 of 1 record).

What was Keith's strikeout over hit rate in sunny home games last season?

Last season, the over cashed in 11 of 18 sunny home games (61%), suggesting a higher strikeout frequency than this season's 50% rate.

What are the weather conditions for the June 25 game?

The forecast calls for sunny conditions at Comerica Park, matching the tracked weather split for this prop. Wind direction is projected to be from the west at up to 20.4 km/h, with a high of 25.5°C.

How Strikeouts Works

Pick over or under how many times the player, while batting, will get three strikes (either by swinging and missing or not swinging at good pitches), resulting in an out.

Reading the Odds

American odds show how much you win on a 100 stake (or must risk to win 100).

Frequently Asked Questions

How does Strikeouts pay out?

Payout follows the posted American odds at the time you place the bet.