Casey Schmitt Over 0.5 RBIs: SF vs ATL, Windy Conditions

Casey Schmitt takes on the Atlanta Braves at Oracle Park on June 28, 2026, in windy conditions (forecasted 19 mph wind speed). This matchup carries a notable wrinkle: the over on Schmitt's RBIs cashed in 2 of his last 5 home games against Atlanta played in wind (40% hit rate), and in 7 of his last 20 windy home games overall (35% hit rate). However, Schmitt faces a challenging recent context: he recorded 0 RBIs across all 4 windy home games last season.

Quick Stats

• Schmitt has hit the over in 40% of his last 5 windy home games vs Atlanta (2 of 5)
• Over 0.5 RBIs cashed in 35% of Schmitt's last 20 windy home games (7 of 20)
• Forecasted wind speed of 19 mph matches the condition threshold (14+ mph for MLB)
• Last season: 0% hit rate in 4 windy home games, no RBIs recorded in any

Head-to-Head Windy Trends vs Atlanta

Schmitt's recent history in windy home games against the Braves shows mixed results. In his last 5 windy home matchups vs Atlanta, the over on 0.5 RBIs hit twice, for a 40% success rate. The two winning outcomes came in 2023 (Aug 26-27) and 2024 (Aug 15), with a 2-RBI performance registering on Aug 15, 2024. However, he also posted three games with 0 RBIs, including the most recent 2024 encounter (Aug 13).

• 2 of 5 windy home games vs Atlanta cashed the over (40%)
• One game produced 2 RBIs (Aug 15, 2024); others yielded 0 or 1
• Most recent matchup (Aug 13, 2024) resulted in 0 RBIs

Last 20 Windy Home Games: Broader Context

Expanding the sample to Schmitt's last 20 windy home games across all opponents, the over cashed 7 times for a 35% hit rate. This span dates from May 2024 through July 2025 and includes opponents such as Cincinnati, Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Yankees, Houston, Colorado, Detroit, Chicago White Sox, St. Louis, Cleveland, Boston, and Pittsburgh. The mix shows Schmitt has occasional success in wind but remains inconsistent.

• 7 of 20 windy home games resulted in over 0.5 RBIs (35%)
• Opponents faced: CIN, LAD, NYY, HOU, COL, DET, CWS, STL, CLE, BOS, PIT, ATL
• Hits ranged from 0 to 2 RBIs in individual games

Last Season's Windy Home Record: Cautionary Sign

In 2025, Schmitt's windy home game performance was notably poor. He appeared in 4 home games in wind conditions and failed to record an RBI in any of them, posting a 0% hit rate. These games occurred against Cleveland, Boston (twice), and Pittsburgh. The barren stretch raises a significant red flag for backing the over in similar conditions.

• 0 RBIs recorded in all 4 windy home games last season (0% hit rate)
• Opponents: CLE, BOS, BOS, PIT
• Most recent game of this type: July 30, 2025 vs Pittsburgh

Game Context: Giants at Home vs Braves

The Giants host the Braves on June 28, 2026, at Oracle Park. San Francisco enters the contest with a 33-47 season record (.4125 win percentage) and is on a 1-game losing streak. Atlanta brings a 48-31 record (.6076 win percentage) and is carrying a 4-game losing streak, though not on a winning streak. Wind is forecasted at 19 mph from the WNW, exceeding the 14 mph threshold Schmitt's trends are measured against.

• Giants home record: 33-47; Braves road record: 48-31
• San Francisco on 1-game losing streak; Atlanta on 4-game losing streak
• Forecasted wind: 19 mph WNW (night game, clear sky)

Prop Outlook

Casey Schmitt carries 11 qualifying prop angles in our data. The top trend hits 80% historically; we weigh recent form against the line.

• C. Schmitt Under 1.5 - Hits + Runs + RBIs (80% in the last 20 night away games) at -104 - SF @ ATL
• C. Schmitt Under 0.5 - Singles (76% in the last 17 humid away games) at -121 - SF @ ATL
• C. Schmitt Under 0.5 - Hits (75% in the last 4 rainy games) at +187 - SF @ ATL
• C. Schmitt Under 0.5 - RBIs (74% in 42 night games this season) at -225 - SF vs. ATL
• C. Schmitt Under 1.5 - Total Bases (62% in 42 night games this season) at -170 - SF vs. ATL

Situational Angles to Know

Storylines our projection data flags for this player:

• Casey Schmitt lines up against former teammate Dominic Smith.
• Casey Schmitt plays in his birth country, United States.

Best Prop Picks

Top Casey Schmitt prop recommendations with the numbers behind them:

• C. Schmitt Under 1.5 - Hits + Runs + RBIs (80% in the last 20 night away games, -104)
• C. Schmitt Under 0.5 - Singles (76% in the last 17 humid away games, -121)
• C. Schmitt Under 0.5 - Hits (75% in the last 4 rainy games, +187)
• C. Schmitt Under 0.5 - RBIs (74% in 42 night games this season, -225)

The Trends Behind the Props

How Casey Schmitt's prop results break down across recent form, the full season, home/away, and head-to-head splits:

• C. Schmitt Under 1.5 - Hits + Runs + RBIs, 68% in 38 night games this season (26/38)
• C. Schmitt Under 1.5 - Hits + Runs + RBIs, 80% in the last 20 night away games (16/20)
• C. Schmitt Under 0.5 - Singles, 70% in the last 20 humid games (14/20)
• C. Schmitt Under 0.5 - Singles, 60% in the last 20 games vs a former teammate (12/20)
• C. Schmitt Under 0.5 - Hits, 55% in the last 20 humid games (11/20)
• C. Schmitt Under 0.5 - Singles, 76% in the last 17 humid away games (13/17)
• C. Schmitt Under 1.5 - Hits + Runs + RBIs, 76% in the last 17 humid away games (13/17)
• C. Schmitt Under 0.5 - Hits, 70% in the last 10 humid away games (7/10)
• C. Schmitt Under 0.5 - Hits, 60% in the last 10 away games vs a former teammate (6/10)
• C. Schmitt Under 0.5 - Hits, 75% in the last 4 rainy games (3/4)

Things to Watch Out For

Risk flags before betting these props:

• Casey Schmitt is on short rest (0 day), a fatigue risk for volume props.
• The forecast above could suppress scoring, passing volume, and overs.
• C. Schmitt Over 0.5 - Walks has hit just 25% recently, closer to a coin flip than an edge.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the 35% hit rate mean for the over on Schmitt's RBIs?

In Schmitt's last 20 home games at Oracle Park played in wind conditions (14+ mph), the over on 0.5 RBIs cashed 7 times. A 35% hit rate indicates the prop has connected roughly one in three such games, but also failed in two-thirds, a minority outcome, not a strong edge.

How does the 40% vs Atlanta split compare to the broader trend?

Schmitt's 40% hit rate (2 of 5) in windy home games specifically against the Braves is 5 percentage points above his 35% rate across all opponents over 20 games. This marginal difference suggests Atlanta does not present a dramatically stronger or weaker condition for the prop.

Why is last season's 0% in 4 windy home games significant?

Schmitt's complete lack of RBIs in all four windy home games during 2025 suggests wind conditions may suppress his run-production ability. Since this is the most recent sample and occurs immediately before the 2026 season, it carries recency and relevance weight and directly contradicts shorter-term bullish angles.

Is Schmitt projected to play in this game?

The data provided does not include confirmed starting lineups or participation status for either team. Check official roster updates and team announcements closer to game time.

What are the odds for this prop?

Casey Schmitt Over 0.5 RBIs is offered at +187 (American odds), which converts to 2.87 in decimal format and 187/100 in fractional form. The implied probability is 34.8%.