A'ja Wilson's three-point shooting dramatically shifts in night away games. The Las Vegas Aces center has made fewer than 1.5 three-pointers in 17 of her last 20 away games played at night (local start time after 6pm), a hit rate of 85%. Against New York Liberty specifically, the trend intensifies: Wilson has cashed the Under in all 6 of her last 6 night away matchups versus NYL. On June 30 at Barclays Center, expect this pattern to hold.
Quick Stats
- Wilson Under 1.5 3-Pointers hit 85% in last 20 night away games (17 of 20).
- Perfect 6-for-6 cashing record in night away games vs. New York Liberty.
- This season: 86% hit rate in 7 night away games (6 of 7 cashes).
- Last season: 86% hit rate across 14 night away games (12 of 14 cashes).
- Both Aces (12-5,.706 win %) and Liberty (12-6,.667 win %) enter at 3-2 L5 record.
Unshakeable Road Pattern: 85% in 20 Nights
Wilson's three-point volume collapses in night away games. Over the last 20 such contests, she has made fewer than 1.5 three-pointers in 17 games. This 85% hit rate spans multiple seasons and opponents, demonstrating a reliable structural tendency rather than noise.
- Last 20 night away games: 17 cashes (85%)
- Last 10 night away games: 8 cashes (80%)
- Last 5 night away games: 5 cashes (100%)
Perfect vs. Liberty in Night Road Contests
The matchup history against New York Liberty amplifies the edge. Wilson has never made 1.5 or more three-pointers in any of her 6 night away games versus Liberty, dating back to 2021. Every single game cashed the Under, an unmixed run of success.
- Aces vs. Liberty night away games: 6 of 6 cashes (100%)
- Dates span from 2021-06-03 through 2025-07-09
- All 6 games: Wilson under 1.5 three-pointers
Season and Playoff Consistency
This season's sample reinforces the trend. In 7 night away games through June 18, Wilson has made fewer than 1.5 three-pointers in 6, for an 86% cashing rate. Last season's 14-game night away sample produced 12 cashes, also 86%, confirming the pattern is not seasonal variance.
- 2026 season night away games: 6 of 7 cashes (86%)
- 2025 season night away games: 12 of 14 cashes (86%)
Prop Outlook
A'ja Wilson carries 9 qualifying prop angles in our data. The top trend hits 81% historically; we weigh recent form against the line.
- A. Wilson Under 28.5 - Points + Assists (81% in the last 27 games against NYL) at -117 - LVA @ NYL
- A. Wilson Under 25.5 - Points Scored (81% in the last 27 games against NYL) at -122 - LVA @ NYL
- A. Wilson Under 38.5 - Points + Rebounds + Assists (78% in the last 27 games against NYL) at -114 - LVA @ NYL
- A. Wilson Over 2.5 - Assists (70% in the last 20 games) at -170 - LVA @ NYL
- A. Wilson Over 0.5 - 3 Pointers Made (70% in the last 20 night games) at -264 - LVA @ NYL
Situational Angles to Know
Storylines our projection data flags for this player:
- A'ja Wilson plays in his birth country, United States.
Best Prop Picks
Top A'ja Wilson prop recommendations with the numbers behind them:
- A. Wilson Under 28.5 - Points + Assists (81% in the last 27 games against NYL, -117)
- A. Wilson Under 25.5 - Points Scored (81% in the last 27 games against NYL, -122)
- A. Wilson Under 38.5 - Points + Rebounds + Assists (78% in the last 27 games against NYL, -114)
- A. Wilson Over 2.5 - Assists (70% in the last 20 games, -170)
The Trends Behind the Props
How A'ja Wilson's prop results break down across recent form, the full season, home/away, and head-to-head splits:
- A. Wilson Over 39.5 - Points + Rebounds, 55% in the last 20 away games (11/20)
- A. Wilson Over 39.5 - Points + Rebounds, 45% in the last 20 night games (9/20)
- A. Wilson Over 39.5 - Points + Rebounds, 45% in the last 20 games (9/20)
- A. Wilson Over 39.5 - Points + Rebounds, 40% in the last 20 night away games (8/20)
Things to Watch Out For
Risk flags before betting these props:
- A'ja Wilson is on short rest (1 day), a fatigue risk for volume props.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Under 1.5 3-Pointers prop?
You wager that A'ja Wilson will make fewer than 1.5 three-point shots (i.e., 0 or 1 makes) during the entire game, including overtime. A three-pointer is counted when a shot taken from beyond the three-point line goes through the basket.
Why does Wilson's three-point rate drop in night away games?
The data does not explain the cause, only documents the pattern: in night away games (local start time after 6pm), Wilson has cashed the Under 1.5 three-pointers at an 85% rate over the last 20 contests. The trend exists regardless of opponent, venue, or season.
Has Wilson's Under hit every time against Liberty?
Yes. In Wilson's 6 night away games versus New York Liberty (dating back to 2021), she has made fewer than 1.5 three-pointers in all 6 matchups, a 100% cashing rate.
What are the team records going into this game?
Las Vegas Aces are 12-5 overall with a 3-2 record in their last 5 games. New York Liberty are 12-6 overall, also with a 3-2 record in their last 5 games.
When does the game start?
The game tips off at 7:00 PM local time (19:00 ET) on Tuesday, June 30, 2026, at Barclays Center in Brooklyn. Local start time is after 6pm, qualifying it as a night away game for Las Vegas.